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ddrueding

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I like quick cars, and for years that meant the only choice was Tesla. Now there are better options, I'm still deciding between the Audi eTron GT and the Lucid Air <something>.

Elon was a smart dude, the lead he had vs the traditional auto industry and the stuff he's still driving at SpaceX is absolutely amazing. Shame he seems to be losing his mind.
 

Mercutio

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As I understand it, the people at SpaceX are better at managing him in ways that let them work than some of the other concerns where he's more involved.
 

LunarMist

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Sentiment against Tesla at this point is actually holding back adoption of EVs. I'm not sure I can recall public sentiment turning against a business figure as quickly as Twitler's has.
Adoption of electric is not so much about one company or person, but all the other factors.
There are plenty of electric, hybrid, and plug-in hybrid cars. Pick another one that you like better.
For example, some people did not like Herny Ford, so they bought Dodge Bros or Chevrolet vehicles.
 

ddrueding

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Adoption of electric is not so much about one company or person, but all the other factors.
There are plenty of electric, hybrid, and plug-in hybrid cars. Pick another one that you like better.
For example, some people did not like Herny Ford, so they bought Dodge Bros or Chevrolet vehicles.
There are now plenty of options. For years there was only one good option, and the whole time all the automakers and most of the analysts were saying Tesla would fail.

Don't get me wrong, the dude is nuts and could be making much better choices elsewhere, but pushing EVs when he did and pushing reusable rockets when he did were both solid plays.
 

LunarMist

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I have no interest in purely EVs, so I don't follow all that stuff. I might consider a plug-in hybrid if I had clear access to power. I can understand couples having one EV or wealthy individuals buying EVs just to have them, but unfortunately they are not practical for my single person, single vehicle use. I drive so little in my Home region, that there is no economics either. I'm too old to be internationally located.
If I get to retire and am driveable, I'd prefer Jeep Grand Cherokee or something like that. If the C levels of Stellanits are psycho killers, should I care about how that affects the drive train and suspension system of the vehicle?
 

jtr1962

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The thing is once you have, say, 25% adoption of EVs, that will be enough to put a lot of gas stations out of business. Gas stations are a marginal business. They'll either have to add fast-charging stations to make up for the loss in gas sales, or fold. Enough will fold that it'll probably be a lot harder to gas up. That will push to the remaining 75% to go EV a lot quicker.

Another factor here is as demand for gas drops, the price of crude drops, probably below the point at which oil companies can profitably extract it from the ground. That's the real turning point, where the pumps will literally run dry.

The main reason EV adoption hasn't happened as quickly as planned is first, the vehicles are far too expensive. Everyone, including Tesla, catered mostly to the luxury market. Second, installation of fast charging stations hasn't happened as quickly as we thought. Granted, if you're not going on a long trip, and have a garage/driveway, you can always recharge at home. However, this doesn't help apartment dwellers much. In the big cities where EVs make the most sense the adoption rate has been abysmally low.

Forget Tesla. My money is on BYD. Their <$10K EVs are coming soon in China. They need to import them to the states without tariffs. If we want people to buy American made, let the automakers figure out how make $10K EVs. That's what the market needs. Unfortunately with most people forced to own a car, they shouldn't be forced to own a vehicle which costs $25K or more, plus has ongoing expenses like fuel, tuneups, etc. Forced car ownership is keeping far too many people poor. EVs can cost nothing to refuel if you have solar power. Maintenance is minimal. If made well they should last far longer than ICE cars. If made in similar numbers they will cost far less. Sodium-ion batteries, which BYD is now using in some models, will cost less than $30/kW-hr, compared to at least $100 for any flavor of lithium. So bring on the $10K EVs ASAP. They'll sell like hot cakes. No government subsidies needed. To further encourage their adoption maybe government can remove the requirement for insurance. In fact, in France they have 45 km/hr city EVs which you don't even need a license to operate.

My understanding is the BYD EVs only need two things to be legal in the US. One is seat belts. The other is friction brakes, although I vehemently disagree that friction brakes should be required in EVs. The state of regen braking is sufficiently advanced that you don't need another braking system.

As an aside, I would much rather we start working on the automotive dependency problem. Getting a driver's license, or owning a car, should be the exception, not a right of passage into adulthood. In places where you don't have to drive (i.e. NYC, especially Manhattan), a large percentage of households don't own cars, and many adults never got a driver's license, me included. So long term we need denser settlement patterns, a lot more public transit, plus a lot more housing built within walking distance of rail stations. Sort of like the old "town built around the train station" model which prevailed until the early 20th century. Individual car ownership is so incredibly wasteful on many levels as to defy belief. So are the spread out settlement patterns it promotes.
 

LunarMist

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That is way too much complication of a future state. I can only decide what to drive for myself in the 2020s-2030s if my organs consitune. The last 10 years or so I have not put much resources into automobiles. There are far more important things for me to spend money on than transportation. When I was a young adult I thought that cars were more important and relatively spent stupidlity on them. 🙄
Realistically if I can get a few more years from my current vehicle I probably only need one more after that. I'm not willing to buy a vehicle that limits my future housing and location choices. Maybe if I were 25 years younger on a different space/time line I'd have had a different priority. But back in my space/time line then everyone was in the reporduction modes and into the minivans and hugely SUV.
 

jtr1962

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To me people are making too big a thing of this. It's just another transition, the way we went from CRTs to flat screens, incandescents to LEDs, HDDs to SSDs, and so forth. By the time you might be in the market for another vehicle, there won't be any real downsides to an EV. Even now there mostly aren't. ICEs are dead-end technology. No point making them for much longer. All a person has to do in go into a large city during warmer weather, breathe the air, and realize the status quo is untenable. ICEs are literally killing people.

Regarding limiting housing and location choices, lots of people can't drive as they get older. That's why I would never live in a place I can't get around with a car. If you can't drive, you're depending upon neighbors or family for transportation. Maybe autonomous vehicles will save the day and let people continue to live independently in the sticks but I wouldn't bet on it in the short-term.

And this is why SUVs and other ludicrously huge vehicles just need to go:


NYC should ban SUVs and pickups from city limits yesterday.
 

Handruin

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For me it's not resisting EVs, the transition isn't as minimal as you've suggested with your examples of LCDs or LEDs. Mainly the issue right now is adequate and reliable charging networks, emphasis on reliable. I've known of multiple people hit with range anxiety and stress issues as they've bounced from multiple charging locations because the chargers just wouldn't work correctly. This is with them planning their trips carefully too.

I'd assume some of that will get better with standardizing on Telsas charge port and them opening their chargers to more cars, but there's now more issues at play. One is that there's now significant more demand for the same capacity of chargers. Second, Elon fired the Tesla super charger team of 500 people...so...how's that going to help things grow? The main thing that keeps ICEs so commonplace is how easy it can be in most civilized areas to find an abundance of working gas stations. Not to mention it takes me like 5-7min to refuel at a stop. EVs could take 30-40min to get you to 80%. With more adoption this will get significantly longer as everyone waits in a queue to get to a charge port.

The other issue is the EV limited range unless you spend significantly more money on a vehicle and even then you still don't get a ton.

Please don't take my issues as reasons to continue with ICEs or that I'm anti-EV. My issue is that there has been inadequate support or funding to really get ahead of the charging network issues to reduce barriers in accepting EVs as commonplace vehicles. This is why I feel like there is a slump in EV sales and adoption and I don't see it getting better for a while.
 

ddrueding

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There is no way $10k is enough to build a safe rolling chassis, much less the systems inside it. No car at that price point would be acceptable.

Here BYD and other Chinese manufacturers are already selling cars, but only on the large/luxury end.

Friction brakes are 100% necessary. Regen doesn't work if the battery is already full, if the battery is too cold, or if the electronics are out.

Tesla is still building superchargers around here right now, so no idea what those fired supercharger employees were doing?

EVs here are around 30% of the market already, there are 5 charging facilities from 3 companies within half a mile. They range on a scale from expensive to unreliable. When driving across the country I stop at 10% of the superchargers on the route, so there is plenty of failover. Even driving to Amsterdam I didn't bother planning charging stops, just look for the next one when the battery is getting low (just like I did with a gas car).

Some people fill up their car once it is below half, and plug their phone in all the time just in case. If these people have anxiety while driving an EV, this is not a technical problem, it is a personal problem. Everyone else just develops a feel for when is the right time to recharge and rolls in with 5% left just like they did with their gas car.
 

Handruin

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I wasn't suggesting a $10K price-point either, I wouldn't even trust a gas vehicle in this range. Once we can get a decent variety of vehicles to 300 mile range in the $35K range that would be a great start. One of the closest I've seen to that is the Chevy Bolt, but it's been discontinued.

My point about the Tesla super charger team wasn't that those 500 people are the ones you are seeing in the field installing you local super charger station, my point is that they were leading the planning and evolution of the charing system network. So now that they've been mostly eliminated it seems like a natural conclusion that future expansion, development, and maintenance would take a hit in productivity. I would hope that any existing contracts to build out infrastructure like in your example would be honored and completed but future sites may never come to fruition.

That sounds great that your area is progressive and prioritizes EVs and charging stations. I'm glad to hear they take it seriously. If I were to go forward with an EV for my next vehicle, a very high percentage of my driving use-cases would be covered by decent EV charging stations, probably in the 80-90% easily. The issues for me, which I guess to your point is a personal problem, is that for those several times a year when I make roadtrips and visits to neighboring states like Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine, I'm now in anxious territory for EV charging support and reliability.

I agree it's personal because it's my specific area, but the technical issues are lack of available and reliable charging stations. There are a bunch that exist but you can't rely on them unfortunately. I'm not alone in this situation as this type of travel is common in the New England part of the US and I know friends who have gone through these issues. I don't have any of those travel anxieties with a gas engine simply because the refueling infrastructure has long been established in those areas. That said, I'm not using this as an argument to continue with ICE vehicles indefinitely, just that adoption will continue to stagnate until that problem can be addressed along with making EVs more affordable to the masses.

I'm all for adopting EVs and I believe they're the way forward for personal transportation. When my area (and likely other areas) can work out the recharging station availability and reliability we may see better adoption rates, including myself as one of those people.
 

ddrueding

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It is entirely possible that anxiety around driving in New England relying on non-Tesla chargers is completely rational. The only charging network that doesn't have a bad reputation seems to be the Superchargers. It helps that the App and the vehicle itself communicates clearly how many chargers are functional and unoccupied at each location, along with their rated power.

I know in the early days Tesla was using sales data to help determine where and how many Superchargers to install, and that that analysis was critical to maximizing the limited funds they had available. It also is quite likely that such analysis isn't needed in most areas anymore. But I'm not so sure about New England.
 

jtr1962

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Just a few more random thoughts on this:

1) I'm sure range anxiety is a thing but on the flip side I've read 99% of car trips are less than 40 miles. To a large extent people focus on worst-case scenarios. A guy on CPF who was a big proponent of EVs had this to say about range anxiety: "You don't own a moving van for the rare times you move, so why choose a car based solely on outlier trips you might make a few times a year, if that? Rent a gas car for those trips if range is really a concern." The range and charging situation will only get better anyway. 5 minute charge to 80% should be a thing in the relatively near future. I'm not concerned about Tesla firing those engineers. He opened the door for other players to get into the charger business.

2) I agree with Dave that a lot of this is a personal problem, not a technical one. Today's EVs generally have at least 200 to 300 miles of range. With a little planning it's possible to do long trips without range being much of an issue. Moreover, people are still fixated on the ICE refueling paradigm, which is wait until the tank is 1/4 full or less before refueling. EVs need a change from that. Think of every time the vehicle is parked as an opportunity to add charge. Go to a mall, charge for 30 minutes or whatever, regardless of how full the battery is. All these small charges add up. EV manufacturers can help further by covering the roof, hood, and trunk with solar panels. Granted, even with more efficient panels this will never be the primary charging solution, but it fits in with my theme above. Even if you can't find a charging station, the car might gain 10 or 20 or 25 miles of range for every day it's parked. That means it might be topped up most of the time if your driving habits are a lot of short errand trips. Moreover, this is "free" fuel.

3) To a very large extent American obsession with huge vehicles is making EV adoption a lot harder. A F-150 is an abomination, whether it's gas-powered or EV. You use 5 times the energy per mile as you might with a more sensible vehicle. Moreover, it seems we've forgotten all about aerodynamics. Everything looks like a box these days-pickups, crossovers, SUVs. What happened to those futuristic radically streamlined vehicles? The same battery which gets you 200 miles in a boxy SUV or crossover will get you 1,000 miles in a medium sedan with a Cd around 0.08. Aerodynamics equals free range. Why we're not jumping on this as we transition to EVs is beyond me.

4) Only in the US have EVs become political, where the right associates them with left-wing policies. Undoubtedly this has hurt their adoption a lot. In other countries without this issue, EV adoption in much further along. In Norway 90% of the new vehicles sold are electric. This in a cold country where one would think EVs would be at a distinct disadvantage. That said, sodium-ion works well down to at least -30°C. Some variants work down to -70°C. That's Antarctica/Mars cold. If we get high EV penetration continuing to use lithium is untenable from a resource/mining damage standpoint. That's where sodium-ion comes in.

5) Regarding the $10K EVs, the limiting factor for car-body cost is the cost of raw materials. I think that's well under $1,000. So I have plenty of confidence we can make safe, low-cost car bodies with advances in manufacturing. Regarding braking, regen braking can work just fine even with a full battery. You just need a resistor grid to dissipate the energy. Trains have done this for ages. Modern trains put energy back into the catenary but that only works if other trains are on the same circuit to absorb the energy. To get around this they have resistor grids to burn the power in case it can't be fed back into the catenary.

6) All that said, I'm not a proponent an an automotive-based transportation system. EVs solve some of the problems of cars, but not most of them. Cars are still wasteful in that you have an expensive capital asset only used 10% of the time or less. They kill 40K to 50K people a year directly, probably ten times that number indirectly with air pollution. You need space to park them. Compared to rail they hog energy. They're also slow/uncomfortable compared to train for longer trips. If Biden gets another term I hope he focuses on starting a US high-speed rail system. The really useful EVs which will solve a lot of problems are electric trains, not electric cars.

Dave, have you taken advantage of the great HSR system in the EU? To me that's the way to get around. Train is the only civilized way to travel long distances from where I stand.
 
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LunarMist

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Do you even drive much anymore? I cannot comment on the dystonian futures of a large city like NYC, but most people live in less overpopulated areas and in a different world. Dave lives in the highly electrifed, affluent lands, and drives like a maniac. I live in the burbs, but am looking to go further out, perhaps semi-rurals and want AWD and some ground clearance.

A $10K new vehicle of any kind will be a POS. It's like a modern Yugo. :LOL: The average vehicle is about $40K nowadays. A nicer vehicle is $60-80K.
 

ddrueding

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I use the trains in Denmark all the time, they aren't high-speed here, but the country is so small it hardly matters. Getting to Copenhagen by train is still faster than driving, and only costs twice as much as the toll bridge anyway.

When we were in The Netherlands about a month ago we used the crap out of their public transportation system, mainly because they've made life very painful for cars. In Amsterdam the street cars are alright, and in all the other cities the busses are clean and on time, but the trains around the country are awesome. Best of all was how easy it was to pay, you just tap your credit card to check into the system and tap again to check out. The transaction description includes an ID that you can use to create an account or print receipts if you like, but you never need to do any of that.
 

ddrueding

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For the record, I no longer drive like a maniac, at least in Denmark. 25% over the limit and you lose your license, 100% over the limit and they seize whatever car you were driving and auction it off. Not your car? Now you really have problems.

Of course, on the derestricted autobahn I take the car to the limiter (235kph, 145mph) and leave it there. Still manage 175 miles to a charge.
 

jtr1962

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I'm honestly shocked you get that kind of range at that speed.

Yeah, they intentionally make things painful for cars in the Netherlands but the cities are much more livable as a result. It's a cycling mecca from what I hear about it.

I didn't know they take your car for doing twice the limit or over in Denmark. Probably a bit extreme but that's why the per capita road fatalities across the pond are like 1/4 to 1/3 of what they are in the states. It's also why you can have unlimited roads like the autobahn. I wish here in the US they would do draconian stuff like that if you're at fault for death or severe injury in a collision. Forfeit the vehicle, and lose your license permanently. If we could get the 10% to 20% of worst drivers off the roads for good things would be a lot safer.

Tap and go is finally available on the NYC subway/bus system. Much more convenient than keeping track of how much money you have left on a MetroCard.
 

jtr1962

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A $10K new vehicle of any kind will be a POS. It's like a modern Yugo. :LOL: The average vehicle is about $40K nowadays. A nicer vehicle is $60-80K.
I don't know. Their $10K EV is getting good reviews:


Granted, I think it's fugly but then I hate SUVs and crossovers with a passion. They look like giant roller skates. Something like this is much more my styling taste:


Cd = 0.175. No mention of the range, but put ultra-low rolling resistance tires on it and you might be looking at 750+ miles with a reasonably-sized battery pack.
 

sedrosken

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Some people fill up their car once it is below half, and plug their phone in all the time just in case. If these people have anxiety while driving an EV, this is not a technical problem, it is a personal problem. Everyone else just develops a feel for when is the right time to recharge and rolls in with 5% left just like they did with their gas car.

So... me, then. You're pretty much calling me out with laser precision. :LOL: Not so much with my phone, but with my car? I never let myself get below a quarter of a tank. Then again I also live in Florida where I've seen a couple stations shutter during an emergency because they ran out of fuel. I try to always let myself have a way out of the state just in case.

I think they need to figure out an energy storage technology that is cost effective and doesn't degrade significantly within the expected lifespan of a vehicle like Li-Ion and LiFePO do. I'll grant that the anti-EV folks are using this point as a club to beat people over the head with, but it's not an insignificant or solved problem -- pretty non-negotiably within five years of manufacture people will need to start replacing their EV batteries, which significantly contributes to waste, further environmental collapse via the ecological disasters that are lithium and cobalt mines. Not to even get into the financial aspect of it. People are already regularly left with the hard choice of having to get a whole new car when they can't afford a head gasket replacement on an ICE vehicle. We have to think on the impact this will have on the poor, working and otherwise. Imagine when it's something they can't ward off with the nebulous concept of "keeping up with maintenance."

Where I live I see plenty of Teslas but almost no chargers. I hear there's one at a local Publix or Winn Dixie or something, but the only one I've actually seen with my physical eyeballs is all the way in Foley, AL at the Buc-ee's exit on I-10. Which means these people have these functionally as local commuters where they plug into the house electric system every night. I can't do that -- I rent and my parking is outdoors. To get it to be cost effective one would also likely need to install solar at the home in some areas with high rates.

Those BYD cars likely will never pass NHTSA standards for sale here stateside as they are. Add to that the tariffs on Chinese goods likely getting worse, not better in the coming years and that little $10k EV of theirs will end up well over $25k by the time it comes for sale here, if it's ever even allowed to.

Nevermind the fact that a lot of folks, myself included, want nothing to do with the digital shitshow that has become the modern car interior. Even some ICE cars are being infected with this touchscreen for AC BS. I thank Toyota every day I get in my car for being so slow to adopt new ideas because in my base model 2018 RAV4, I still have real gauges, a turn-key ignition, and the three knobs for AC. The only really whiz-bang features I have are bluetooth and a backup camera, and one of those I think became a requirement here in the states around the time of this thing's manufacture or else I would never have even gotten it, most likely. I don't like steer by wire at all and only begrudgingly have accepted throttle by wire because nothing has used a throttle cable in almost a decade and a half at this point.

I'm not anti-EV, I just don't see them becoming practical for my use anytime soon where I live. I'll likely be running an ICE car well into the 2030s.
 

LunarMist

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I don't know. Their $10K EV is getting good reviews:


Granted, I think it's fugly but then I hate SUVs and crossovers with a passion. They look like giant roller skates. Something like this is much more my styling taste:


Cd = 0.175. No mention of the range, but put ultra-low rolling resistance tires on it and you might be looking at 750+ miles with a reasonably-sized battery pack.
It's a cheap and tiny car even if they build it to a decent safety standard for 50% more. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BYD_Seagull
I'd be more interested in a LYRIQ for example.
 

LunarMist

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That was just an example. I'm sure that Ford/Lincoln or Toyota/Lexus, etc. make something you would like better. But most modern cars will spy on you whether gas or electric. I drove an Escalade rental for about 2000-2500 miles (probably 2014 or 2015). It was fine, but larger than I needed. It was powered by some variety of LS gas engine. It was impractical then (and still is now) to do those kinds of trips in an electric vehicle.

I don't know where I will live in the future, so until then I'm keeping my car. It has low mileage and could last for years if I wanted to.
 
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jtr1962

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I think they need to figure out an energy storage technology that is cost effective and doesn't degrade significantly within the expected lifespan of a vehicle like Li-Ion and LiFePO do. I'll grant that the anti-EV folks are using this point as a club to beat people over the head with, but it's not an insignificant or solved problem -- pretty non-negotiably within five years of manufacture people will need to start replacing their EV batteries, which significantly contributes to waste, further environmental collapse via the ecological disasters that are lithium and cobalt mines.
First off, that's right-wing FUD which I'm surprised you believe. The real-world experience is much different.

Second, LiFePO4 lasts MUCH longer than regular li-ion. Calendar life can exceed 20 years, and they're good for 2,000+ charge cycles. They also don't explode or catch fire. They're starting to become the go-to battery for all EVs, except those where people are obsessed with getting every last mile of range.

Sodium-ion, which lasts upwards of 5,000 cycles and doesn't catch fire, is now in mass production. That pretty much fixes all the battery issues with EVs. If you have salt mines you can make batteries.

I agree about the waste, but we'll have the infrastructure in place to recycle lithium batteries soon, same as we do for lead acid.

Not to even get into the financial aspect of it. People are already regularly left with the hard choice of having to get a whole new car when they can't afford a head gasket replacement on an ICE vehicle. We have to think on the impact this will have on the poor, working and otherwise. Imagine when it's something they can't ward off with the nebulous concept of "keeping up with maintenance."
It's a sore point with me that in this country poor people should be forced to own a car at all. Car ownership is helping to keep them poor, especially with average new car prices now over $50K. The best thing for the working poor, short of better public transit, would be a flood of $10K or $15K EVs, plus a refundable tax credit of at least $7,500 for purchasing an EV. The out the door cost for a new EV then could be as little as $2,500. Besides costing less to purchase, the operating costs are far lower than ICE vehicles, and there's little keeping up with maintenance beyond tires, washer fluid and wiper blades. Of course, the GOP will fight this because they hate EVs, and they like to keep the working poor down so they have a ready source of near-slave labor.
Those BYD cars likely will never pass NHTSA standards for sale here stateside as they are. Add to that the tariffs on Chinese goods likely getting worse, not better in the coming years and that little $10k EV of theirs will end up well over $25k by the time it comes for sale here, if it's ever even allowed to.
We can fight the tariffs based on the fact they're making these vehicles much more expensive for the working poor who would buy them. American automakers are the only ones who want the tariffs. Maybe they should try making $10K EVs instead. I'm not sure about the NHTSA standards but some are selling in Europe which has more stringent standards than we do. Even if it adds a few thousand to the price $15K is still better than $40K.
Nevermind the fact that a lot of folks, myself included, want nothing to do with the digital shitshow that has become the modern car interior. Even some ICE cars are being infected with this touchscreen for AC BS. I thank Toyota every day I get in my car for being so slow to adopt new ideas because in my base model 2018 RAV4, I still have real gauges, a turn-key ignition, and the three knobs for AC. The only really whiz-bang features I have are bluetooth and a backup camera, and one of those I think became a requirement here in the states around the time of this thing's manufacture or else I would never have even gotten it, most likely. I don't like steer by wire at all and only begrudgingly have accepted throttle by wire because nothing has used a throttle cable in almost a decade and a half at this point.
Backup cameras are a good thing but I'm surprised they allow touch screens in cars. They're a driver distraction. I have a different view of steer and throttle by wire. One reason I never had much enthusiasm to drive, besides living in a place where I didn't need to, is I found the controls hugely awkward. If I had to design a control system, I'd use something similar to a fighter plane joy stick. Move left to turn left, right to turn right, backwards to accelerate, forwards to brake. You can do combinations of turns and acceleration/deceleration also. Top dead center would simply maintain the speed you're going in a straight line. No need for cruise control. Streering wheels and pedals harken back to an era where these things were mechanically necessary. I'm just surprised car control systems never had a revamp once we could do things electronically. For the disabled, or those with CTS like myself, a control system like I described would be much less taxing. It would probably be cheaper to implement also. I think it's ridiculous to have to turn a steering wheel a gazillion times to parallel park, for example. Also, the steering wheel is a huge hazard in a collision. Getting rid of it makes vehicles much safer.

A big pet peeve of mine with newer vehicle interiors is the god awful outgassing of all the plastic. Invariably, when I'm in any car made within the last 15 to 20 years I get nauseous inside of 15 minutes. This just didn't happen in older cars. I wish we would use stuff like stainless steel and fiberglass seats for car interiors, just like mass transit vehicles use. I never get sick on a train or bus from outgassing.
I'm not anti-EV, I just don't see them becoming practical for my use anytime soon where I live. I'll likely be running an ICE car well into the 2030s.
Rural or exurbs are likely the last places EVs will become practical but that's fine. We'll get most of the positive impact by pushing them in large cities and inner ring suburbs, where the pollution from large concentrations of vehicles cause the most harm. Ditto for noise pollution. It'll be nice not hearing the loud engines from idiots drag racing on streets. Better yet, maybe mandate governing vehicles to the speed limit, at least on local surface streets.
 

jtr1962

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It's a cheap and tiny car even if they build it to a decent safety standard for 50% more. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BYD_Seagull
I'd be more interested in a LYRIQ for example.
I think they're both ugly but my point is some people are broke and just don't have $40K to spend on a car. That's the market for these, not people who are doing better and don't mind spending a king's ransom on a car.
 

LunarMist

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The poor people will not buy new cars and there will not be so many used electric vehicles because the batteries don't last. You can see plenty of >10 year old cars in the neighborhoods yet I doubt there will be as many electrics. I suppose we will see in the 2030s how well the used electric vehicles are doing.
 

jtr1962

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The batteries not lasting is nonsense. The numbers show otherwise. Once we move 100% towards LFP and sodium-ion the battery life will be even longer, probably many decades.

Have you seen the prices of used cars lately? I'm glad I never needed to own a vehicle. I couldn't afford it, even a used one.
 

LunarMist

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Yes, they are always asking for me to trade in my car towards a crappier vehicle. :LOL:
Were you leasing, driving somebody else's car, or just renting as needed?
 

jtr1962

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I never owned a car or had a license. I'd be flat broke now if I had. My feet or my bike serve most of my transportation needs. Failing that, there's the subway, commuter railroads, and Amtrak. Keep in mind for about the last 12 years until my mother passed away going out beyond short local bike or store trips was out. I could go out more now in theory, but I'm too depressed for it. Still really miss my mother.

Not surprised you're getting offers for your car. They'll sell it for twice what they'll pay you for it.
 

LunarMist

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Wow. Somehow I thought you just stopped driving in the last decade or so. I suggest taking a few weeks and driving 6000 miles around the country to gain a better perspective.

Most people not having money start with cheaper or older cars in high school and move up to better cars as their career progresses.
 

jtr1962

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Wow. Somehow I thought you just stopped driving in the last decade or so. I suggest taking a few weeks and driving 6000 miles around the country to gain a better perspective.

Most people not having money start with cheaper or older cars in high school and move up to better cars as their career progresses.
No, I never even had a driver's license. Not about to get one at 61 years old, either.

I already mentioned I get car sick on all but the shortest trips, so car isn't a viable mode of transport for me. At all. Plus I have severe CTS. I just can't physically drive. Train is really the only viable long distance mode for me.

I never had a car because it's a solution in search of a problem for me. The places I like to go are more easily and quickly reached by train or bike. I don't really like going to the sticks, which is about the only reason to own a car.
 
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ddrueding

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My first EV was a 2013 Tesla Model S, very early car, they'd only made a few thousand at that point. That battery still had 95% of it's rated life in 2022 after 145k miles. Even if it didn't, it was still under warranty when I sold it.
 

Mercutio

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I think they're both ugly but my point is some people are broke and just don't have $40K to spend on a car. That's the market for these, not people who are doing better and don't mind spending a king's ransom on a car.

I don't have much to say about EVs as such. I'm not buying a car again until my current car actually dies. Even if I'm spending a couple grand a year on maintenance, that's better than a car note, especially given the price of a new(er) car. Most people my partner's age are crushed by just three items: Car payment, rent and student loan. In the overwhelming majority of the USA, there is no workable public transit infrastructure. It exists in a functional way on the east coast and that's about it. Even California, which definitely has the population density to do it state-wide, basically doesn't. But borrowing $30k at 5% over 60 months (what my partner's car would've cost her) would be $750/month for five years. That's $rent in my part of the world. Since we live in a world where salaries basically don't increase ever, this is something that isn't going to get better, and suggests a bleak economic future for anyone not on the descending slope of income distribution.
 
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jtr1962

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Add in the cost of insurance and it gets even worse. Average cost of car ownership in the US is around $10K annually. For comparison purposes the grand total of all my expenses ( utilities, real estate taxes, home insurance, food, clothing ) is less than $20K. A car would basically increase my expenses by over 50%. And as a new driver in NYC, just the insurance alone would be over $5K.

There may be no workable public transit infrastructure in most of the US, but there's no excuse for not providing safe bicycle infrastructure and sidewalks. An e-bike can largely replace a car, especially if all that car carries most of the time is the driver, but people need a safe place to ride it. My brother has an e-bike with a range of over 100 miles, and a top speed of around 30 mph. That's incredibly useful for many scenarios. There should be bike lanes on all major roads by law, separated from other traffic by jersey barriers or something equally solid.

I've read once you account for the cost of car payments, it's actually less expensive to live in a place like NYC than much of the rest of the country. Like you said, car payments are equivalent to rent, or a good portion of rent, even in NYC. A cash-strapped young person here could get a $4K apartment with maybe 4 or 5 other people. That keeps their monthly rent reasonable. Without needing a car, student loans might be the only other major expense they might have.

BTW, on the subject of student loans, it doesn't just affect people your partner's age. I was thrilled when Biden rolled out his student loan cancellation. Without it, that means I won't get Social Security. The student loan collection companies would take all of it. Unfortunately, through not fault of my own, I ended up going down the rabbit hole of student loan default after graduating (i.e. couldn't find a job for over two years). As you may know, once that happens, the system of collection fees and interest upon interest means you have zero chance of ever getting out of debt. Right before the pandemic one of the collection companies wanted over $1 million US from me as payment in full. Note that I originally borrowed only $8460. They had some crazy formula where they calculated 25% of my lifetime assumed earnings. That's assumed, not actual, earnings based on my degree. They said since I had an engineering degree my assumed earnings were around $125K, so they did some present value calculation of that. And they would also take 75% of my assets not in retirement accounts. The government only would get the principal and interest owed to it. The collection company would get to keep the rest. However, since collection companies are only entitled to a percentage of what they collect, Biden's loan cancellation would have freed me from all this. BTW, I don't know how any of these exorbitant collection fees are even legal (technically they're not as my promissory loan caps collection fees at 25% of principal) but that explains the rush by the GOP to get the case to the Supreme Court. Student loan collection is a cash cow for them. Anyway, maybe a second Biden term will finally free me. If not, I'm not even bothering to apply for Social Security. Why should I when I won't see a dime of it? It'll be my parting f-you to the collection companies.
 

Mercutio

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If you're still being hounded by debt collectors regarding student loans, ask them to provide proof that they own the debt they're trying to collect. In a lot of cases, they can't provide it. My partner got out of about $15k in medical debt that way.

My older brother wound up with a useless master's degree that he likewise refuses to pay. Since my apartment was his last legal address in the USA, I get at least one and sometimes two letters from debt collectors per day. One of the reasons he's chosen to reside in the Czech Republic is that there is no mechanism to allow debt collection from the USA there. I'm sure the amount has ballooned to some amazingly stupid number since he borrowed something like $100k around 25 years ago, but I just toss the letters with everything else when I check my mail.
 

LunarMist

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Typically one can progress in career from individual contributor to manger to director to VP to C level with various increments in between. Often that means moving from one company to another or changing roles within a company and of course the proportion that reach highest levels is diminishingly small.

I never took out a loan that I could not reasonably pay back even if I had to borrow from somebody else to pay it off and then pay them.
Defaulting on anything seems like a really bad idea to me. Doesn't a bad loan negatively affect your credit rating when buying a home, vehicle, or other properties? Likewise it can affect employment opportunities and career growth. Most jobs where you have significant financial authority require you to have decent credit and they check regularly.
 

jtr1962

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If you're still being hounded by debt collectors regarding student loans, ask them to provide proof that they own the debt they're trying to collect. In a lot of cases, they can't provide it. My partner got out of about $15k in medical debt that way.
Did that multiple times. It worked in that it stopped one collection company from hounding me, only to be bothered by another a few years later. I'm pretty sure all these fees are illegal and wouldn't hold up in court anyway. I also noted the collection efforts got a lot more aggressive under the Trump administration. No surprise there given that his education secretary owns a stake in some collection companies.

The (semi) good news is that the put me on income-based repayment after the pandemic pause ended. Based on my income, my monthly payments are zero. Supposedly since I have well over ten years of prior payments my balance should eventually be wiped clean once they account for these payments. We'll see, although the GOP is trying to stop this also.
My older brother wound up with a useless master's degree that he likewise refuses to pay. Since my apartment was his last legal address in the USA, I get at least one and sometimes two letters from debt collectors per day. One of the reasons he's chosen to reside in the Czech Republic is that there is no mechanism to allow debt collection from the USA there. I'm sure the amount has ballooned to some amazingly stupid number since he borrowed something like $100k around 25 years ago, but I just toss the letters with everything else when I check my mail.
Smart move on his part. The loan will die with him. As far as I know, so far they can't go after relatives like you for student loan debt, although the GOP wants to do that as well.
I never took out a loan that I could not reasonably pay back even if I had to borrow from somebody else to pay it off and then pay them.
Defaulting seems like a really bad idea to me. Doesn't a bad loan negatively affect your credit rating when buying a home, vehicle, or other properties? Likewise it can affect employment opportunities and career growth. Most jobs where you have significant financial authority require you to have decent credit and they check regularly.
I actually have a credit rating in the 800s, so apparently it hasn't affected me. Never any trouble getting credit cards. After my student loan I decided never to borrow money again for any reason, so that's not a problem.

I didn't intentionally default. Can't pay back a loan with no income. I asked my parents to borrow the money for payments but they refused. Or in the case of my mother just didn't have it. She had been out on disability from work for a while when my loan payments started coming due.
 

sedrosken

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First off, that's right-wing FUD which I'm surprised you believe. The real-world experience is much different.

I've got a few friends with EVs and that's been their experience -- one just got their car a couple years ago and it's already only at like 78% of its rated capacity. To be fair, one of the experiences I'm lumping in is a friend with a Prius that's had to replace their hybrid battery. I'm not one to just take a right-wing source at face value.

My credit jumped from mid-600s to mid-700s when I reorganized my debt into a personal loan and thus dramatically reduced my credit usage figure. If someone can bump their credit that much just by getting a limit increase I don't consider credit a figure that's really sensical.

Thankfully my student loans are already nearly gone, I just have the government subsidized ones left and I still have some miniscule iota of hope that someday that'll get written off, though I am paying on it just fine. I never even got the degree I went for. It's a little hard not to feel robbed at that. When I left school, I had a remainder balance that I couldn't pay from where the program I was in refused to pay out. That hit collections, and I paid it through a plan, though I rather wish I hadn't bothered, knowing what I do now about collections agencies and how they can sometimes resell debt you've already paid. Knock on wood, so far I haven't heard anything about it since.

I don't know much about my mother's financial situation though I do know at one point she refinanced her home through her student loans when they were in the depths of the financial crisis or something. Somehow I guess it made sense at the time, likely through consolidating payments or some such. I don't know if she still owes anything on that -- I know she declared bankruptcy a few years back but I thought student loans weren't dischargable. If the GOP gets their way I'll likely end up holding the bag when she passes. Debtors prisons might unironically make a comeback at this point, it wouldn't surprise me a bit. They're letting companies build towns again, anything is possible.
 

Handruin

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Add in the cost of insurance and it gets even worse. Average cost of car ownership in the US is around $10K annually. For comparison purposes the grand total of all my expenses ( utilities, real estate taxes, home insurance, food, clothing ) is less than $20K. A car would basically increase my expenses by over 50%. And as a new driver in NYC, just the insurance alone would be over $5K.

There may be no workable public transit infrastructure in most of the US, but there's no excuse for not providing safe bicycle infrastructure and sidewalks. An e-bike can largely replace a car, especially if all that car carries most of the time is the driver, but people need a safe place to ride it. My brother has an e-bike with a range of over 100 miles, and a top speed of around 30 mph. That's incredibly useful for many scenarios. There should be bike lanes on all major roads by law, separated from other traffic by jersey barriers or something equally solid.

I've read once you account for the cost of car payments, it's actually less expensive to live in a place like NYC than much of the rest of the country. Like you said, car payments are equivalent to rent, or a good portion of rent, even in NYC. A cash-strapped young person here could get a $4K apartment with maybe 4 or 5 other people. That keeps their monthly rent reasonable. Without needing a car, student loans might be the only other major expense they might have.

BTW, on the subject of student loans, it doesn't just affect people your partner's age. I was thrilled when Biden rolled out his student loan cancellation. Without it, that means I won't get Social Security. The student loan collection companies would take all of it. Unfortunately, through not fault of my own, I ended up going down the rabbit hole of student loan default after graduating (i.e. couldn't find a job for over two years). As you may know, once that happens, the system of collection fees and interest upon interest means you have zero chance of ever getting out of debt. Right before the pandemic one of the collection companies wanted over $1 million US from me as payment in full. Note that I originally borrowed only $8460. They had some crazy formula where they calculated 25% of my lifetime assumed earnings. That's assumed, not actual, earnings based on my degree. They said since I had an engineering degree my assumed earnings were around $125K, so they did some present value calculation of that. And they would also take 75% of my assets not in retirement accounts. The government only would get the principal and interest owed to it. The collection company would get to keep the rest. However, since collection companies are only entitled to a percentage of what they collect, Biden's loan cancellation would have freed me from all this. BTW, I don't know how any of these exorbitant collection fees are even legal (technically they're not as my promissory loan caps collection fees at 25% of principal) but that explains the rush by the GOP to get the case to the Supreme Court. Student loan collection is a cash cow for them. Anyway, maybe a second Biden term will finally free me. If not, I'm not even bothering to apply for Social Security. Why should I when I won't see a dime of it? It'll be my parting f-you to the collection companies.

Avg cost of car ownership is $10k per year? Where does that number come from? I've never come close to that number or know of anyone else that has.
 

Handruin

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I've got a few friends with EVs and that's been their experience -- one just got their car a couple years ago and it's already only at like 78% of its rated capacity. To be fair, one of the experiences I'm lumping in is a friend with a Prius that's had to replace their hybrid battery. I'm not one to just take a right-wing source at face value.

My credit jumped from mid-600s to mid-700s when I reorganized my debt into a personal loan and thus dramatically reduced my credit usage figure. If someone can bump their credit that much just by getting a limit increase I don't consider credit a figure that's really sensical.

Thankfully my student loans are already nearly gone, I just have the government subsidized ones left and I still have some miniscule iota of hope that someday that'll get written off, though I am paying on it just fine. I never even got the degree I went for. It's a little hard not to feel robbed at that. When I left school, I had a remainder balance that I couldn't pay from where the program I was in refused to pay out. That hit collections, and I paid it through a plan, though I rather wish I hadn't bothered, knowing what I do now about collections agencies and how they can sometimes resell debt you've already paid. Knock on wood, so far I haven't heard anything about it since.

I don't know much about my mother's financial situation though I do know at one point she refinanced her home through her student loans when they were in the depths of the financial crisis or something. Somehow I guess it made sense at the time, likely through consolidating payments or some such. I don't know if she still owes anything on that -- I know she declared bankruptcy a few years back but I thought student loans weren't dischargable. If the GOP gets their way I'll likely end up holding the bag when she passes. Debtors prisons might unironically make a comeback at this point, it wouldn't surprise me a bit. They're letting companies build towns again, anything is possible.
I have a friend that has two Prius and they got into the 240k mile range on each of them and only now is the battery near end of life fwiw. I'm sure like everything there will be exceptions to the norm and a lot may depend on area of living, driving habits, and even times where manufacturing defects contribute to premature loss of battery life.

Unfortunately in their situation a new battery replacement is far, far more costly compared to the value of the car so he isn't going to replace it. It's just too old with too many miles to bother.
 
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