How much faith do I have in computers?

Adcadet

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As some of you may know, I'm a senior medical student. After 4 years of medical school comes residency, which is from 3-7 years long. Almost everybody does residency these days, except maybe a few who only want to do research, or the moderately insane (the very insane and slightly insane stay in). After residency comes fellowship if you want to subspecialize or just don't like yourself. I am applying to internal medicine (3 years), and am thinking of doing cardiology (3-4 years after my 3 years of internal medicine) after my internal medicine residency, or less likely, pulmonary and critical care (3 years). Unfortunately for me, cardiology is incredibly competitive right now, making my choice of residency very important in the long run as it may affect my ability to enter the subspecialty of my choice.

The story goes that a long time ago, residency programs/hospitals would start to bug medical students well before their senior year to sign a contract to do their residency with them. The competition for cheap labor....er, I mean residents... got so bad that at one point second year students were being pressured to sign contracts before they even knew what specialty they wanted to go into, and were told that if they don't sign a contract with the hospital now, they would never get the chance again. This situation sucked. But so did residency back then, when you were literally a "resident" of the hospital, needed permission to leave the premises, and were basically on duty 24/7.

Eventually students got fed up with this pressure to commit early, and hospitals got tired of having to compete with each other so they all decided to make some rules. The rules didn't really work at first, because they were voluntary and not everybody would follow them (shocker!). A few years later, to make life more fair, and a little less stressful for medical students, the National Residency Matching Program was created, and the rules were actually enforced. With this system, all senior medical students can apply to programs for an interview, go interview at however many places they wish, and on a certain date submit a Rank Order List of places they want to go. Programs review applications, decide who they might like to have and interview them, and then they submit their Rank Order List of people they want. The deadline for the ROL's for applicants and programs is the same: this year it's February 21st at 9 PM Eastern Time. Some time after that, a computer matches them up. The program used to give preference to programs (if "1/2" means a program is an applicant's first choice but the applicant is the program's second choice, then with the old program a 2/1 tentative match was favored over 1/2 tentative match, but that's since been switched).

According to th NRMP, this is how applicants are supposed to rank programs to get the best match possible:
1. Applicants are advised to include on their rank order lists only those programs that represent their true preferences.
2.Programs should be ranked in sequence, according to the applicant's true preferences.
3. Factors to consider in determining the number of programs to rank include the competitiveness of the specialty, the competition for the specific programs being ranked, and the applicant's qualifications. In most instances, the issue is not the actual number of programs on the rank order list, but whether to add one or more additional programs to the list in order to reduce the likelihood of being unmatched.
4.Applicants are advised to rank all of the programs deemed acceptable, i.e., programs where they would be happy to undertake residency training. Conversely, if an applicant finds certain programs unacceptable and is not interested in accepting offers from those programs, the program(s) should not be included on the applicant's rank order list.

The match tends to work very well: they say that something like 85% of all people get one of their first 3 choices. Students are free to rank programs in secret and without any undue pressure, since your ROL is never revealed. This year Match Day, the day at which it is revealed where people have matched, is March 15th, at 1 pm Eastern Time.

Matches are legally binding, which makes this whole process work. So whatever order I have at 9 pm tomorrow is what my Rank Order List will be, and there will be no going back. At 9 pm tomorrow, my fate for the next 3+ years will be made. So I have obviously put a lot of work into figuring out which residencies I prefer. I applied to 18, and interviewed at 8. Of those 8, I would be pretty happy at about 5. The bottom 3 I wouldn't be so happy at, but it's better than the alternative: not matching and having to "scramble" for the unmatched spots. I will not describe that process, because from first hand accounts, it sounds worse than hell. Even thinking about it makes me nervous. Luckily, the chances of me not matching are very small. Not because I'm some sort of super medical student, but because for my specialty, internal medicine, there are more slots than US Seniors. Of course, some of the places on my list are incredibly competitive, but I've listed a number of places so statistically I'll match.

There's a little more to the story here, but for now I'll leave that out. I'll revisit it later.

So, I'm pretty sure about my ROL order, but the whole process is a little nerve wracking at times. It's hard to describe how important Medicine is to me without sounding like a conceited jerk, so I'll just skip that part. But suffice it to day, my residency is a crucial part of the rest of my professional, and personal life, and I'm relying on a computer for this, which is why I'm wondering "how much faith do I have in computers?" I suppose I trust in computers every day without thinking about it. I've taken a graduate exam, a pre-med exam, and three licensing exams that used computers, and wasn't ever too worried about it spitting out my results accurately. I've flown to many interviews, which relied on airplane and air traffic control computers. I've put people into machines that have the potential to zap them with lethal doses of radiation and didn't worry about it. I've hooked people up to machines that time the beating of their heart or breathed for them and wasn't concerned. That was truly life or death: my current concern is just 3 years of my life, not my actual life.

I remember hearing that the computers that run the NRMP match take about 20 minutes to run the actual code, but then they spend 2 weeks running different, but mathematically identical code to verify the results. I guess they don't want to be screwed by a few random electrons getting in the way. (Lord I hope they don't run this thing on overclocked hardware.) But I suppose human error is much more likely to cause problems. Last year one not too competitive anesthesiology residency paid for airline flights and hotel stays for all of their interviewees (few programs will shoulder any cost other than a dinner the night before to allow applicants to meet current residents). Anesthesiology is a bit different because you can match to it in your first year out of med school, or after your second; either way, you need to do a "transitional" year first and some programs have it integrated or let you do it elsewhere. Some administrator in this particular anesthesiology program made the grave mistake of ranking everybody who was applying for a first year spot in a second year spot, and everybody who applied for a second year spot in a first year spots: nobody matched, nor could have matched, at that program. And in the two weeks of checking the match results, nobody saw or wondered why this program matched absolutely zero of its spots. Not only did this screw over that particular residency and the students who wanted to go there, but it had a trickle effect, because people who wanted to go to that particular program were now taking spots at other programs. And nobody could do a thing since it was all governed by a legally binding contract. So I've now checked my match list four times, making sure that the programs listed were indeed the ones I interviewed at, checking the program codes backwards and forwards to make sure I don't get tripped up between like-sounding programs (like Washington University and University of Washington...big difference between Seattle and St. Louis), and I've had my wife go over the list and make sure it resembles what we've discussed.

So, where might I end up? Well, assuming I match, it could be at:
- The University of Minnesota, my home program
- Hennepin County Medical Center, the Minneapolis county hospital
- Abbott Northwestern, a private hospital in Minneapolis
- The Mayo Clinic in Rochester, MN, where I spent a month on a rotation
- Washington University in St. Louis
- Yale University in New Haven, CT
- Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, one of the Harvard programs in Boston
- University of Washington in Seattle

So, where do I want to go? Since I'm not careful at all about disguising my identity I'd prefer not to say for now. My rank order list has been submitted and certified, so as long as I don't touch it, as of tomorrow at 9 pm, it isn't up to me anyway!

So, how much do I trust computers?
 

mubs

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You answered your question somewhere in your post. It isn't the computers, it's the humans. The ones who code the data, input it, write the code to process it and the ones who interpret it.

You've done your part by checking and re-checking, and most important, having another set of eyes verify it. Now it's out of your hands. Everything will turn out well ('cause I said so :)).

All the best. May your wishes come true.
 

ddrueding

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I think this fits in with a discussion I had yesterday about hard vs. easy choices. An easy choice is one where the preferences aren't balanced, and you clearly prefer one over the other. A hard decision is one where you either prefer the options equally or aren't entirely sure which choice you really want. These shouldn't be hard choices regardless of their importance because the consequences should fall within an acceptable range of "optimal".

Best of luck; I'm sure the result will be one heck of an experience regardless of the results ;)
 

Pradeep

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I think he's actually moving South a few miles. If he lives in Minneapolis now, he must be used to the cold.
 

Adcadet

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Yup, moving 85 miles south. We actually can tell that it's slightly warmer there. Slightly. Good thing suits are warm!
 

Fushigi

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I've been to Rochester a few times, but never to the Mayo. The IBM plant there is where the AS/400, er, iSeries, er, no, wait, what is it today? .. oh yeah! "System i" is manufactured. IIRC the IBM facility is the second largest employer in Rochester after Mayo.

Congrats on getting your top choice and on landing at the Mayo!
 

Adcadet

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I've been to Rochester a few times, but never to the Mayo. The IBM plant there is where the AS/400, er, iSeries, er, no, wait, what is it today? .. oh yeah! "System i" is manufactured. IIRC the IBM facility is the second largest employer in Rochester after Mayo.

Congrats on getting your top choice and on landing at the Mayo!
Thanks. That is my understanding as well. If you see a suit in Rochester there's a 99% chance its worn by a Mayo or IBM employee.
 

ddrueding

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I shared the news with my GF (studying USMLE step one as we speak) and her question was "what is his specialty?"

If that's not prying too much...
 

Adcadet

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Yep, my GF really wants to run an EKG on me based on some intermittent issues I have.
In these parts we recently had a 20-something on a rotation do an exercise stress (EKG) test just to see how it was done...and "failed" it. Shit. Now what? There's no data on this. Go with an exercise 'mibi (?), and then maybe a cath if it shows a focal area? Or just repeat the stress EKG and hope it's normal and ignore the first? All this for a 20-something who likely has zero risk factors and zero symptoms? Or do you just ignore the stress EKG? Too bad he got the test. People need to think first, test second. In short, DD, talk to your doctor.
 

e_dawg

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Wow, congrats Adcadet! What a coincidence. My dad went to Mayo for his FRCP in Internal Medicine too. And he focuses his practice on the cardio side of IM as well...
 

ddrueding

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What would I do if I failed an EKG? Ignore it, probably. Considering it would be informal; the equipment is in her office, she has experience with it, and no-one would mind us fooling around. Were I to look into health/life insurance at some point, it wouldn't be part of any record.
 

e_dawg

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Yep. In that case, just do it! There are many conditions that you can have and be treated for... no sense in waiting until you collapse in a heap and need to be rushed to the ER with minutes to live.

For that matter, I wonder how it works in the US. I thought there were private clinics where you could get tests done for your own purposes and not have the results on your record.
 

ddrueding

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For that matter, I wonder how it works in the US. I thought there were private clinics where you could get tests done for your own purposes and not have the results on your record.

There are, and this is one of them. Boutique practice; cash only, ~150 patients/doctor, referrals to the best the area (incl. Stanford) has to offer, all for ~$350/mo.
 

Adcadet

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You know, DD, I don't appreciate you referring to your GF as a 7950GT in your signature. I don't think women should be objectified that way.

Now, for academic purposes, where can I get my wife spec'd at?
;)
 

ddrueding

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Now, for academic purposes, where can I get my wife spec'd at?
;)

Wife? I'm afraid she's already completed her "burn in" process, so overclocking will be difficult. Though with larger heatsinks (made of gold, of course) it might be possible to run at higher speeds for short periods of time.
 

Howell

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An old college roommate just left Mayo where he was for his fellowships in cardiology and clinical electrophysiology. He did his internship and residency at Johns Hopkins.

Can you do your fellowships at the same place you do residency? Seems like everyone always moves.
 

Adcadet

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You certainly can do fellowship (or two, like your friend who did cardiology and then electrophysiology) at the same place you do residency... the same place you did med school... the same place you did your undergrad. Some people pick their residency partly for it's strong fellowships because your chances of getting into a fellowship (typically also run as a match) best where you did your residency because they already know you. I certainly hope to have a good shot of doing a cardiology fellowship at Mayo, but cardiology is the most competitive fellowship in internal medicine and Mayo is highly desired for their cardiology training.
 
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